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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 12

Green Bay Packers 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Pass formation) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 17-D.Adams to PIT 4 for 8 yards (22-W.Gay).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP