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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 53 yards to PIT 28, Center-61-B.Goode. 84-A.Brown to PIT 30 for 2 yards (11-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model