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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.01 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP