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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model