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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to LAC 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model