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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to DAL 4 for 12 yards (27-J.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP