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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 14

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.96 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model