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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 57

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 26 for 10 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model