4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 14

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model