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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Detroit Lions 23

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 4-R.Quigley punts 28 yards to DET 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP