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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 82

Detroit Lions 23 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIN 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for 4 yards (54-S.Longa).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.78 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP