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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Detroit Lions 23

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.07 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model