Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 23 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(3:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Rhodes at DET 37. 29-X.Rhodes to DET 16 for 21 yards (85-E.Ebron).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP