Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(10:50) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to ATL 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 28 for 8 yards (52-C.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model