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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 7-P.Murray 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 9, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model