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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 8 at the 49
Atlanta Falcons 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
What Actually Happened
(2:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.69 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
KICK
-1.18 EP
- 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 67% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
