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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 34

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to ATL 25 for 10 yards (23-R.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.71 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP