Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(1:43) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ATL 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model