Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.12 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model