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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 34 for 9 yards (56-M.Mauti).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model