Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 14 – New Orleans Saints 28

(5:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 27 yards to NO 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-19-R.Shepard.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model