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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 14 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess pushed ob at NO 7 for 5 yards (20-K.Crawley). Pass -5, YAC 10

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 12, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model