Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 95

New Orleans Saints 28 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to CAR 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 45 for 3 yards (31-C.Banjo). FUMBLES (31-C.Banjo), RECOVERED by NO-52-C.Robertson at CAR 47. 52-C.Robertson to CAR 47 for no gain (96-W.Horton).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.92 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model