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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 13

New Orleans Saints 28 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.27 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model