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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model