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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 5-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP