Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(7:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model