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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 25 for 9 yards (87-S.DeValve, 49-J.Keyes).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model