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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LAC 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-56-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model