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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 5-T.Coons 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP