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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model