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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to CLE 4, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.17 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP