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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to CLE 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 33 for 12 yards (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model