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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 35
Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(13:31) 29-D.Johnson Jr. up the middle to LAC 37 for -2 yards (54-M.Ingram).
The Three Options
GO
+1.44 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK
+0.13 EP
- 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
- 37% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.30 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
