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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 37 for 25 yards (28-A.Blue). FUMBLES (28-A.Blue), RECOVERED by HOU-22-J.Todman at TEN 41. 22-J.Todman to TEN 41 for no gain (94-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP