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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-B.Miller ran ob at HOU 26 for 8 yards (14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model