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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 9

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model