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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 4, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson pushed ob at HOU 19 for 15 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model