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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 5

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP