Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 51

Houston Texans 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass deep right to 89-S.Anderson to TEN 29 for 22 yards (36-L.Sims). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

What Happened

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.75 EP
77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -1.70 EP

KICK -0.71 EP

26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model