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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(14:05) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model