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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.26 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP