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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to IND 4, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-40-T.Bohanon.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model