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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 30

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to JAX 24 for 8 yards (44-M.Jack).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.44 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EP