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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model