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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 30 for 10 yards (53-C.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.64 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP