Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Arizona Cardinals 16

(13:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to ARI 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 45 for 2 yards (89-T.Higbee).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model