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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [55-C.Jones].

The Three Options

GO +3.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model