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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to LA 20, Center-49-J.Drescher. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 37 for 17 yards (13-Ja.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model