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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to SEA 27 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.19 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model